Hydrological System Complexity Induces a Drought Frequency Paradox

نویسندگان

چکیده

Droughts occur as a result of lack water compared with normal conditions. Whilst this appears trivial, the exact drought definition is not. Especially different types are present, resulting from variables in hydrological system, each unique characteristics. We use common definition, percentile score, and apply same across all types, to study whether actual occurrence droughts matches definition. focus on data-rich Dutch province Gelderland, observations five major components terrestrial cycle. When threshold 20% used corresponding mild drought, anywhere system at least three times more frequently (73% time). On other hand, situation where occurs cycle than four less likely (namely 5% This can be attributed by both (1) responses (2) spatial variability present within component system. With study, we show existence paradox: although seen defined rare scientific perspective, when viewed societal or operational management perspective typical systems subject complexity, become common, rather rare. paradox consequence an inconsistent score between research management, better communication two domains needed search for universally accepted

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Frontiers in water

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2624-9375']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.640976